Literature Review on Detecting Bubbles in Stock Market

Authors

  • Adrianna Syariefur Rakhmat Universitas Pelita Bangsa
  • Mohammad Hatta Fahamsyah Universitas Pelita Bangsa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/eajmr.v2i4.3828

Keywords:

Bubble, Stock Market

Abstract

Stock market bubbles are times when valuation dynamics are momentarily explosive. Stock bubbles can be interpreted as a deviation of stock prices from their fundamental value. LPPLS is one of model to calculate bubble, which assuming that an asset's observed price trend during a bubble era differs from its intrinsic fundamental value. This research is qualitative study or descriptive research to review the LPPLS as a model to calculate bubbles in stock. This study uses secondary data sourced from articles which published in Scopus Indexed International Journal. The conclusion of the research that the LPPLS model can calculate, predict and identify accurately bubbles related  historical event such as the black Monday, dot com, and subprime crisis periods. The LPPLS model has the advantage, including construct end of bubble signals accurately.

References

Chen, S. W., Hsu, C. S., & Xie, Z. (2016). Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the stock markets? New international evidence. Economic Modelling, 52, 442–451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.025

Cochrane, J. (2005). Asset Pricing (Revised). Princeton University Press.

Demirer, R., Demos, G., Gupta, R., & Sornette, D. (2019). On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators. Quantitative Finance, 19(5), 843–858. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1524154

Demos, G., & Sornette, D. (2017). Birth or burst of financial bubbles: which one is easier to diagnose? Quantitative Finance, 17(5), 657–675. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2016.1231417

Froot, K., & Obstfeld, M. (1991). Instrinsic Bubble : The Case of Stock Prices. American Economic Review, 81(5), 1189–1214.

Gai, J., & Gambetti. (7 C.E.). The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles : Some Evidence. American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, 1(233–257).

Gerdesmeier, D., Reimers, H.-E., & Roffia, B. (2013). Testing for The Existence of a Bubble in The Stock Market. Wismarer Diskussionspapiere, 01.

Goetzmann, W. N. (2016). Bubble Investing : Learning From History. In National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER-USA) Working Paper.

Johansen, A., Ledoit, O., & Sornette, D. (2000). Crashes As Critical Points. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 03(02), 219–255. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0219024900000115

Li, C. (2017). Log-periodic view on critical dates of the Chinese stock market bubbles. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 465(xxxx), 305–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.050

Papastamatiou, K., & Karakasidis, T. (2022). Bubble detection in Greek Stock Market: A DS-LPPLS model approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 587.

Shu, M., & Zhu, W. (2020). Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 557, 124892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.124892

Sornette, D. (2017). Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems.

Tarlie, M. B., Sakoulis, G., & Henriksson, R. (2022). Stock market bubbles and anti-bubbles. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, #pagerange#. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.07.012

Zhang, Q., Sornette, D., BalcIlar, M., Gupta, R., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Yetkiner, H. (2016). LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 458, 126–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.103

Zhao, Z., Wen, H., & Li, K. (2021). Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 94(November 2019), 780–788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.018

Downloads

Published

2023-04-30

How to Cite

Rakhmat, A. S. ., & Fahamsyah, M. H. . (2023). Literature Review on Detecting Bubbles in Stock Market. East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2(4), 1499–1504. https://doi.org/10.55927/eajmr.v2i4.3828

Issue

Section

Articles