Poverty is a structural issue that remains a fundamental challenge in Indonesia's social and economic development. As a multidimensional phenomenon, poverty is not only related to a lack of income to fulfill basic needs, but also involves aspects of accessibility to essential public services, such as education, health, decent housing, clean water, and sanitation. From a sustainable development perspective, poverty also reflects inequalities in the distribution of resources, economic opportunities, and socio-political representation that impact the quality of life of the community in the long term. Although Indonesia has shown a downward trend in the national poverty rate in recent years, spatial inequality in the distribution of poverty remains high, indicating problems in equitable distribution of development outcomes between regions.

West Kalimantan Province is one of the regions that still faces major challenges in poverty reduction efforts. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2024, the number of poor people in West Kalimantan reached

336.08 thousand people or 6.71% of the total population of the province. This percentage indicates that more than one in every fifteen residents lives below the poverty line. In fact, the poverty line value in West Kalimantan was recorded at Rp595,509 per capita per month, which is higher than the national average of Rp582,932. This fact indicates that the minimum cost of living in the province is relatively higher, while the community's ability to fulfill basic needs is still low. This inequality further emphasizes the need for a contextual and regionally- based policy approach in effectively addressing poverty.

Poverty Teory

According to Suparlan (2004), poverty can be defined as a condition in which the standard of living of a person or group of people is at a very low level, resulting in significant shortcomings when compared to the standard of living that is normatively considered decent and adequate. This poverty condition does not only affect the material aspects, but also affects the health, quality of life, and moral and psychological aspects of the individuals who experience it. Furthermore, poverty is closely related to economic productivity, where low levels of production and consumption characterize the poor, which in turn hinders the social and economic progress of the region.

In this context, Mudrajad Kuncoro (2010) explains the concept of a vicious cycle of poverty that outlines how poverty can become a cycle that is difficult to break. This cycle starts with the low income of the poor, which leads to limited

capital for productive investment. As a result, their productivity remains low and incomes do not increase, so poverty continues from generation to generation. This theory is in line with Nurkse's (1953) view that poverty is a structural problem due to a lack of capital. Nurkse emphasized that the poor do not have sufficient capital to increase productivity and income, resulting in economic stagnation that reinforces poverty itself.

Total Population

Population reflects the total number of individuals living in an area in a given period, influenced by birth, death, and migration (immigration and emigration) rates. Changes in population are important to analyze because they impact economic, educational, health, and spatial aspects. According to Malthus' classic demographic theory, population growth is exponential, while resources such as food only increase arithmetically, so this imbalance has the potential to cause food shortages and poverty. However, technological developments and modernization have changed some of Malthus' assumptions, such as increased food production and decreased birth rates in many countries, so the theory remains relevant to understanding issues of overpopulation and resource distribution.

In contrast, according to Karl Marx, demographic pressure is caused more by limited employment opportunities than the availability of needs. An increase in population can encourage the production of goods and services and economic growth, but it needs to be controlled through population policy so that the balance between resources and needs is maintained.

H1: It is suspected that population has an effect on the level of poverty in the province of West Kalimantan.

The Open Unemployment Rate

The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) is an important labor market indicator that measures the proportion of the labor force that is currently not working but is actively seeking employment. This indicator provides insights into the efficiency and inclusivity of a region’s labor market. According to Sukirno (2011), unemployment is defined as a condition in which individuals, despite having the capacity and willingness to work, are unable to secure employment. Thus, the TPT focuses on those who are actively looking for work but have not yet succeeded in finding suitable opportunities. A persistently high TPT signals structural problems within the labor market, such as limited availability of decent jobs, mismatches between skills and labor market demands, or macroeconomic instabilities that hinder job creation. This condition can lead to serious socio-economic consequences, including reduced household incomes, lower consumption, increased poverty rates, and heightened social tensions. In the context of Indonesia, unemployment remains one of the critical challenges for the government in its efforts to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic development.

From a theoretical perspective, classical economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo believed that poverty could be mitigated if labor markets functioned efficiently and without significant distortions. According to this

classical view, supply and demand for labor would naturally reach equilibrium, and unemployment would be temporary. However, in reality, labor markets often face frictions—such as barriers to entry, information asymmetry, and institutional rigidities—that prevent optimal allocation of labor. In Indonesia, data on TPT is primarily sourced from periodic labor force surveys conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik – BPS). These surveys provide vital information for policy formulation, particularly in addressing employment challenges and aligning labor policies with national development goals.

H2: It is suspected that the level of open unemployment affects the level of poverty in the province of West Kalimantan.

Human Development Index

The Human Capital Theory proposed by Gary S. Becker emphasizes that human resources are strategic assets that can be improved through investments in education, training, and health. Human capital includes abilities and knowledge acquired through improved health and education, which contribute to productivity and economic growth (Becker, 1993).

The Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator that measures the quality of human development based on three main dimensions: health (life expectancy), education (years of schooling and schooling expectations), and decent living standards (income per capita). HDI is used to evaluate the effectiveness of development programs and illustrate the potential and human productivity in a region (Susanti, 2013). Increasing human capital through investment will result in a more competent and productive workforce, supporting sustainable economic development.

H3: It is suspected that the human development index affects the level of poverty in the province of West Kalimantan.

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework

This study uses quantitative methods to analyze the effect of Population, Open Unemployment Rate, and Human Development Index on Poverty Level in West Kalimantan Province. The research was conducted in West Kalimantan with data from 2009-2023, using secondary data in the form of time series from BPS and other official sources. the analysis used is multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS software.

Normality Test

The Effect of Total Population on Poverty

This test found a t-value of 3.488 for population and a probability of 0.005,

researcher rejects (H0) and accepts (Ha). This shows that population has a negative and substantial impact on the poverty rate in West Kalimantan. This means that an increase in population in the area tends to be followed by a decrease in the poverty rate, as a result the researcher found that the correlation between the two variables is negative and substantial in accordance with the research hypothesis. The researcher suspects that this effect occurs due to an increase in employment opportunities, the implementation of government social assistance programs, and improvements in infrastructure and public services that encourage community participation in productive economic activities.

This is in accordance with the findings of Iilmiah et al. (2021) who revealed that the size of the population does not have a substantial effect on the number of poor people. The success of the family planning program, which began to show results through the 2000 Population Census (SP2000), resulted in the composition of the population being dominated by the productive age group. This dominance of the productive age group does not directly increase the number of poor people, because productive age offers many employment opportunities that can be utilized to improve welfare.

The Effect of The Open Unemployment Rate on Poverty

The researcher determined that the t-value for the open unemployment rate variable is 0.836, while the t-value for the table. Furthermore, this study found that the probability of the open unemployment rate affecting the poverty rate is 0.421, which is higher than the significance level α = 0.05 (0.421 > 0.05). As a result, we accept the null hypothesis (Ho) and reject the alternative hypothesis (Ha). As a result, we conclude that there is no substantial difference between the growth rate and consumption rate in West Kalimantan Province. This condition indicates that an increase in the open unemployment rate does not have a substantial impact on changes in the poverty rate, as a result the researcher found that the relationship between these variables is contrary to the hypothesis that has been proposed. The researcher suspects that this phenomenon may be due to the fact that most of the individuals who fall into the unemployment category are still at a non-productive age or are in the process of looking for work, as a result they have not had a direct effect on increasing the poverty rate. This opinion is not in line with the concept of classical theory introduced by Adam Smith and David Ricardo, which states that unemployment will not occur in the long run if the labor market operates freely.

The results of this study are not in line with several theories adopted by scientists, but rather with previous studies conducted by Safuridar and Natasya Ika (2019) and Ristika, Primandana, W, and Wahed, M. (2021) which state that the level of turbulence (TPT) has no effect. The absence of a significant correlation between TPT and the poverty rate indicates that those who are unemployed are not necessarily among the high-income group.

The Effect of Human Development Index on Poverty

The researcher determined the value of t -2.830 for the HDI variable, t table 2.2009. Furthermore, this study found that the significance level of the human

development index variable on the Poverty Level is 0.421, higher than α = 0.05. Therefore, the researcher rejected the null hypothesis (Ho) and accepted the alternative hypothesis (Ha). The researcher found a substantial effect of HDI on the Poverty rate in West Kalimantan Province. This finding indicates that an increase in HDI can reduce the poverty rate, which means that researchers found a substantial negative relationship between the two variables as previously hypothesized.

This reduction in poverty occurs because a high HDI signifies improvements in the aspects of education, health services, and decent living standards. Improvements in these aspects play a role in increasing people's productivity and providing greater access to employment and income opportunities. The results of this review are consistent with the findings of Ardian, R., Yulmardi, Y., & Bhakti, A. (2021), as well as Ashari, R. T., & Athoillah,

M. (2023), which show that an increase in HDI has a substantial impact in reducing the poverty rate in West Kalimantan Province. This can be explained because the HDI reflects key dimensions of development, such as better access to education, improved health services, and improved living standards.

Based on the results of data analysis that has been carried out through quantitative methods using secondary data from the period 2009 to 2023 in West Kalimantan Province, as well as through testing the independent variables consisting of population, open unemployment rate (TPT), and human development index (HDI) on the dependent variable, namely the poverty rate, it can be concluded that:

For the Regional Government of West Kalimantan Province, it is recommended to increase investment in the education and health sectors to encourage the improvement of the quality of human resources. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen job skills training that is relevant to market needs to reduce labor mismatches. Increasing HDI must be done evenly, not only concentrated in urban areas, in order to reduce the overall poverty rate.

For future researchers, it is recommended to add other variables that could potentially affect the poverty rate, such as income distribution, inflation, or the level of urbanization. In addition, qualitative or mixed-methods can also be used to provide a deeper understanding of social and structural factors that are not covered by quantitative analysis alone.