Analysis of the Influence of Post-Pandemic International Trade on Economic Growth in Indonesia

This study aims to determine post-pandemic developments in Indonesia's exports and imports and their impact on economic growth in Indonesia. International trade is an activity or economic activity involving two or more countries to meet the needs of the people of those countries. International trade is where it happens to buy goods and services on a broad scale. This is because trade cooperation is carried out by various countries, and there is a desire to promote certain goods and services freely. With international trade, a country can increase its prosperity and create equity in demand, supply, and services. The research method used in this research is library research, namely collecting information from related documents and photographs to support the writing process.

This study aims to determine post-pandemic developments in Indonesia's exports and imports and their impact on economic growth in Indonesia. International trade is an activity or economic activity involving two or more countries to meet the needs of the people of those countries. International trade is where it happens to buy goods and services on a broad scale. This is because trade cooperation is carried out by various countries, and there is a desire to promote certain goods and services freely. With international trade, a country can increase its prosperity and create equity in demand, supply, and services. The research method used in this research is library research, namely collecting information from related documents and photographs to support the writing process.

INTRODUCTION
Covid-19 is currently becoming a problem in the international world, so this has a great impact on the world economy and also has an impact on all sectors, especially the economy. This was caused by a slowdown in economic growth due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This delay was marked by deteriorating conditions in the external environment and weakening domestic demand. The Covid-19 pandemic will have a negative impact on the world economy and Indonesia this year, because it occurs simultaneously with declining commodity prices and financial market turmoil. However, everything must be regulated in a collective agreement which must be adhered to with care. In addition, International Trade is the main driver of the need for foreign exchange.
Therefore, a country must be able to increase its export surplus to other countries. It would be better if a country could minimize resources, but generate more profit. This suggests that a country should increase exports as much as possible. At the same time, the state must be able to limit imports. Referring to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), China is still Indonesia's main trade partner. The slowdown in economic growth will be directly related to the decline in gross domestic product (GDP). International trade includes all processes of economic transactions that cross regional boundaries and are governed by international legal mechanisms. The trade process involves individuals, groups and governments. Each party can cooperate in the export-import process with certain policies. The condition of Covid-19 in the global economy caused very high uncertainty and reduced the performance of global financial markets, put pressure on many world currencies, and triggered a capital reversal to financial assets that were considered safe.
In addition, the outlook for world economic growth is also declining due to disruptions to global supply, declining world demand, and also weakening confidence from economic players. Data for February 2020 showed various early global indicators such as confidence in economic actors, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), and electricity consumption and production declined sharply. Meanwhile, in terms of tourism and commodity export revenue, it is estimated that there will be a decline which will cause the current account deficit to reach 2.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020. Investment growth will slow down due to fluctuations in trade which will also cause investor confidence be lower. Even so, it is hoped that cheaper credit costs and proposed economic reforms will be able to support the recovery process in the future.

Theoretical Basis
1. According to Doni et al, (2012) states international trade is the activity of trading goods and services carried out by residents of a country with residents of other countries. 2. According to Halwani (2002) states that in the initial process international trade is an exchange in the sense of trade in labor with other goods and services, which is then followed by trade in goods and services now (when transactions occur) with compensation for goods and services at a later date. 3. According to Sobri, (2011) states that international trade is a way to increase the prosperity of a nation, partly because of the following things: a) Not all countries have the same production equipment or economic conditions, quality (quality) and quantity (amount). b) From the dissimilarity of these conditions, there is a difference in the costs of producing a good between one country and another.
A country may have more luck importing a good than producing it itself. With trade, a country can obtain a number of goods at a cheaper price than when it is produced domestically. Another advantage that arises from the existence of trade, a country can avoid the type of production of goods whose cost prices are relatively high due to the lack (scarce) of the necessary production factors available in sufficient quantity, and then trade. With the emergence of trade, the countries concerned will be able to mutually obtain a number of goods with a lower total cost.

Previous Research
This research refers to previous research. This research can be developed with references or guidelines from several previous studies which have the same variable associations, including: 1. The results of research by Revita Yuni, et al (2021) entitled the impact of international trade on Indonesia's economic growth in 2009-2019 concluded that trade abroad with export and import activities have an influence or impact on economic growth. This is also in line with the theory of international trade put forward by Heckscher-Ohlin which states that Net-Exports or net exports are one of the most important factors of Gross National Product (GNP), so that by changing the value of Net-Exports it will have an effect on changes from National income. And it can be stated further as a conclusion that there is a relationship or impact between exports and imports on a country's economic growth.

The results of Dhea Zatira's research (2021) entitled international trade
on Indonesia's economic growth, the conclusion from the research results is that partially exports have an influence on Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, partially imports have no influence on Indonesia's economic growth. However, simultaneously exports and imports have an influence on Indonesia's economic growth.

The results of Efi Fitriani's research (2019), entitled Analysis of the
Influence of International Trade on Indonesia's Economic Growth. Based on the results of the analysis using multiple linear regression and strategy analysis using SWOT analysis, it can be concluded that: 1.
Exports have a positive influence on economic growth, meaning that the higher the export value, the economic growth will also increase. 2. Imports have a negative effect on economic growth, meaning that the higher the value of imports, the lower the economic growth. 3. The strategy used to increase Indonesia's export results is through diversification of industrial products, increasing agricultural production, plantations, exploration of gold resources, appropriate technology, management modernization, providing promotional assistance and tax breaks for exporters, and increasing product competitiveness.

METHODOLOGY
The design of this research is to use the literature study research method, namely a data collection method that is directed at searching data and information through documents, both written documents, photographs, images, and electronic documents that can support the writing process. The data collection method used is secondary data. Where this secondary data was obtained from BPS to more concisely describe the effect of international trade on post-pandemic economic growth in Indonesia.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
More than 200 countries around the world have reported cases of COVID-19 since the beginning of 2020. This deadly virus and its fast spread caused lockdown rules to be implemented nationwide, which dealt a strong blow to the country's economy. Even though the world is currently recovering thanks to many citizens who have been vaccinated against the Corona virus, the resulting impact is enormous, especially for international trade traffic. As is known, international trade is a trading activity that occurs between two (2) different countries. This form of trade can be through export and import activities, barter, cross-border, package deals and consignment according to the agreement of the two countries. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented lockdown policies in an effort to spread the Corona virus infection in their respective countries.
Therefore, international trade is the first to be affected. Lockdowns in various countries have had quite a crucial effect, such as causing changes in the time and costs required for shipping goods, implementing health protocols which have resulted in increased shipping costs for logistics, and banning the export and import of certain commodities such as food and health. These various obstacles disrupt supply and demand. The Covid-19 pandemic has caused many limitations in all aspects of life including the economy that can threaten people's welfare. Social restriction regulations that occur throughout the world have caused many people to experience forced termination from their jobs.
This increase in the number of unemployed certainly causes a decrease in people's purchasing power, so that many companies have the potential to experience a decrease in profits and are threatened with bankruptcy. Massive bankrupt events by many companies around the world have hampered global economic growth to the point of causing significant losses. But now the world has started to recover thanks to the many citizens who have been given the Corona virus vaccine. The implementation of the new normal has started and the community has carried out their activities as usual. 'New normal' can be a starting point towards a new order of life for the Indonesian people so that they can return to their activities and run the wheels of the economy while still fighting the threat of COVID-19 by strictly implementing the Health Protocols in a disciplined manner. "This new habit must be implemented by the community, both consumers and business actors, with high awareness.
The economy of a country can be seen from the stronger economic growth of the country concerned. With increasingly strong or improving economic growth, it can have a positive impact on economic development, especially for economic sectors related to national income. A country can be said to have good economic conditions by calculating a high level of economic growth or simply measured by increasing the amount of production of goods and services that have been produced. In general, international trade is synonymous with export-import activities between countries. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between exports and the level of economic growth or national income is an identity equation because exports and imports are part of the level of national income. From a expenditure point of view, exports and imports are one of the most important factors of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), so that by changing the value of exports and imports, the national income will directly change (Nasrullah, 2014: 19).

Analysis of Export Development in Indonesia
Based on the results of the 2022 BPS document, Indonesia's total import value during August 2022 reached US$22,150.6 million, an increase of US$805.6 million (3.77 percent) compared to the previous month. Imports came from oil and gas (oil and gas) US$3,701, 4 million and non-oil and gas (non-oil and gas) US$18,449.2 million or respectively providing a role of 16.71 and 83.29 percent. In terms of volume, in aggregate it also increased by 8.07 percent to 16,324.7 thousand tonnes. Overall, the volume of oil and gas imports reached 4,283.3 thousand tons (26.24 percent) and non-oil and gas 12,041.4 thousand tons (73.76 percent).

Table 1. Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas Imports
Compared to the previous month, oil and gas imports decreased by US$753.9 million (16.92 percent) which was triggered by the reduced value of the crude oil component US$602.9 million (35.74 percent) and oil yields of US$205.7 million (8.70 percent). percent), although reduced by an increase in gas imports worth US$54.7 million (13.49 percent). The contribution of each component to total oil and gas imports consists of crude oil (29.28 percent), oil products (58.29 percent) and gas (12.43 percent).

Figure 1. Value of Indonesia's Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas Imports
During the last thirteen months, the highest oil and gas import value was recorded in July 2022 reaching US$4,455.3 million and the lowest occurred in September 2021 amounting to US$1,866.8 million. Meanwhile, the highest non-oil and gas import value was recorded in March 2022 reaching US$18,470.2 million and the lowest in February 2022 amounting to US$13,736.2 million.

Table 2. The Role of Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas Imports
Judging from the role of total imports during the August 2021-August 2022 period, the value of oil and gas and non-oil and gas imports contributed an average of 15.76 and 84.24 percent per month.

Post-Pandemic Indonesia Export Analysis
Indonesia's exports during January-August 2022 reached a volume of 413,434.8 thousand tonnes with a value of US$194,551.6 million, consisting of US$10,834.2 million from oil and gas exports and US$183,7174 million from exports of non-oil and gas commodities. Compared to the same period in 2021, the export value in 2022 increased by US$50,855.0 million. This increase was due to an increase in exports of non-oil and gas commodities worth US$47,861.7 million and exports of oil and gas commodities worth US$2,993.3 million. In August 2022, the price of Indonesian crude oil was US$94.17 per barrel, an increase of US$26.37 per barrel compared to August 2021.

Figure 2. Export Value Composition
The composition of the export value during January-August 2021 and 2022. The development of the export value from August 2021 to August 2022 is presented in Figures 2, 3 and 4. The export value of the oil and gas group in January-August 2021 was US$7,840.9 million consisting of oil crude, oil and gas products worth US$2,347.4 million, US$1,154.7 million and US$4,338.8 million respectively. Whereas in January-August 2022 the export value for the oil and gas group was US$1,046.0 million, US$3,438.8 million and US$6,349.4 million, respectively. Export value for the non-oil and gas group consisting of agriculture, forestry and fisheries; processing industry; and mining and others in January-August 2021 respectively US$2,603.1 million, US$112,251.5 million and US$21,001.1 million respectively. Meanwhile, in January-August 2022 the export value of each of the non-oil and gas groups reached US$3,050.2 million, US$139,212.5 million and US$41,454.7 million.  This publication contains a summary of the development of Indonesia's exports. From this table it can be seen that the largest acquisition of non-oil and gas exports in January-August 2022 came from the processing industry with a value of US$139,212.5 million or around 71.55 percent of total exports. Likewise, in January-August 2021 the largest export gains also came from the processing industry with a value of US$112251.5 million or around 78.12 percent of total exports. When compared to the same period the previous year, the processing industry in January-August 2022 experienced an increase of 24.02 percent. August 2022, the ten biggest mainstay agricultural commodities are coffee with a value of US$689.1 million (22.59 percent); medicinal, aromatic and spice plants with a value of US$442.8 million (14.52 percent); bird's nest with a value of US$421.2 million (13.81 percent); other non-timber forest products with a value of US$304.5 million (9.98 percent); seaweed valued at US$185.4 million (6.08 percent); tobacco 2 percent); annual fruit and other algae valued at US$275.1 million (valued at US$79.1 million (2.59 percent); fresh/chilled caught fish valued at US$71.9 million (2.36 percent); crabs with a value of US$62.6 million (2.05 percent) and white pepper with a value of US$61.0 million (2.00 percent).
Export development of processing industry commodities. In January-August 2022, the ten mainstay commodities for the processing industry are palm oil with a value of US$19,367.6 million (13.91 percent); iron/steel with a value of US$19,143.5 million (13.75 percent); organic basic chemicals sourced from agricultural products with a value of US$ 6,054.9 million (4.35 percent); electrical equipment with a value of US$5,660.2 million (4.07 percent); apparel (convection) from textiles with a value of US$ 5,597.8 million (4.02 percent); sports shoes with a value of US$4,062.1 million (2.92 percent); four or more wheeled motor vehicles with a value of US$3,728.7 million (2.68 percent); nickel with a value of US$3,587.1 million (2.58 percent); jewelery and valuables with a value of US$2.7220 million (1.96 percent); and crumb rubber with a value of US$2,609.1 million (1.87 percent). Export developments of mining commodities and Table 5 contains developments in exports by other commodities such as recycled non-metallic goods and ship wrecks. In January-August 2022, the mainstay commodities for the mining sector are coal with a value of US$30,291.2 million (73.07 percent) and copper ore with a value of US$6,109.6 million (14.74 percent). Coal exports rose 108.11 percent over the same period the previous year, as well as copper ore exports rose 93.80 percent.
Broadly speaking, the development of non-oil and gas exports so far has relied more on 15 main commodities (a summary is presented in Table B which is sorted by value of non-oil and gas exports). The fifteen commodities in January-August 2022 accounted for around 63.99 percent of non-oil and gas exports. The value of coal exports in January-August 2022 increased by US$15,735.6 million from the previous year, so that this commodity contributed around 16.49 percent of national non-oil and gas exports. Furthermore, the export value of palm oil is in second place, the percentage of exports in January-August 2022 rose by US$742.7 million to International Journal of Business and Applied Economics (IJBAE) Vol. 2, No. 3, 2023: 325-338 335 US$19,367.6 million. In line with palm oil, in January-August 2022 the value of iron/steel exports increased by US$6,567.7 million or 52.22 percent compared to the previous year. The export value of copper ore rose 93.80 percent, an increase of around US$1,510.4 million (3 organic basic chemicals sourced from agricultural products) increased by 38.62 percent. In January-August 2022, the value of electrical equipment commodities experienced an increase of around US$1,510. 4 million (36.40 percent) compared to the previous year's period and its role reached 3.08 percent of total non-oil and gas exports. The export value of apparel (convection) from textiles increased by US$1,295.0 million (30.13 percent) compared to January-August 2021 and its role reached 3.05 percent.
The export value of lignite in January-August 2022 accounts for 2.32 percent of all non-oil and gas exports, while the export value of sports shoes in January-August 2022 accounts for 2.21 percent of all non-oil and gas exports. The export value of four-wheeled motor vehicles or more increased by US$1,320.1 million compared to the previous year and its share reached 2.03 percent of non-oil and gas exports. Likewise, the export value of nickel in January-August 2022 rose 469.24 percent compared to last year and its role reached 1 .95 percent. The export value of jewelry and valuables increased by US$963.8 million compared to the previous year and its contribution to nonoil and gas exports was 1.48 percent. The export value of crumb rubber (crumb rubber) fell by US $ 40.3 million and its share reached 142 percent. The export value of pulp increased by US$287.9 million to US$2,298.0 million, as well as the export value of fertilizer which increased by US$856.1 million to US$2,053.2 million.

Table 4. Main Exports of Non-Oil and Gas Commodities
Efforts to increase national exports continue to be carried out by the Government. To achieve this, the Government is implementing various strategies, namely maintaining the main market and products; focusing on export-oriented SMEs/IKM actors; penetrate into non-traditional market countries; utilization of trade agreements both PTA, FTA, and CEPA; and implementation of Regulatory Reform (Job Creation Law) related to simplification and certainty in the export/import licensing and approval process. In addition to providing customs incentives for export-oriented MSEs, the Job Creation Law also provides facilities for importing industrial raw materials and auxiliary materials, and facilitating exports. This was conveyed by the Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto at the 500K New Exporters Conference entitled "Stimulating SME Exports".

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on research on the analysis of the effect of international trade on post-pandemic economic growth in Indonesia, it can be concluded that: 1. The total value of Indonesia's imports during August 2022 reached US$22,150.6 million, an increase of US$805.6 million (3.77 percent) compared to the previous month. Imports came from oil and gas (oil and gas) US$3,701.4 million and non-oil and gas (non-oil and gas) US$18,449.2 million or each contributing 16.71 and 83.29 percent. In terms of volume, in aggregate it also increased by 8.07 percent to 16,324.7 thousand tonnes. Overall, the volume of oil and gas imports reached 4,283.3 thousand tons (26.24 percent) and non-oil and gas 12,041.4 thousand tons (73.76 percent). In general, the domestic economy continues to improve after the previous two years experiencing a pandemic, marked by the increasing need for imported commodities during 2022. In addition, Indonesia was also recorded as importing raw/auxiliary materials of US$123,553.3 million and US$23,117 of capital goods. .2 million so that it is expected to help domestic production which lacks industrial raw materials. 2. Indonesian exports during January-August 2022 reached a volume of 413,434.8 thousand tonnes with a value of US$194,551.6 million, consisting of US$10,834.2 million from oil and gas exports and US$183,7174 million from exports of non-oil and gas commodities. Compared to the same period in 2021, the export value in 2022 increased by US$50,855.0 million. This increase was due to an increase in exports of non-oil and gas commodities worth US$47,861.7 million and exports of oil and gas commodities worth US$2,993.3 million. In August 2022 the price of Indonesian crude oil was US$94.17 per barrel, an increase of US$26.37 per barrel compared to August 2021. So this increase in exports will increase the country's foreign exchange and can increase people's income because this increase in exports will increase the workforce so that can reduce unemployment.